To calculate 5-year used home transaction trends, first gather annual transaction data from sources like the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the U.S. Census Bureau, or CoreLogic. Sum the total number of closed transactions for each year. Adjust for seasonality by calculating a 12-month moving average or using regression analysis to isolate annual trends. Normalize the data by dividing transaction volumes by the nation’s population or GDP to account for economic growth and demographic shifts. Finally, compute the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to quantify trends over the period. For example, if transactions grew from 4.1 million in 2018 to 5.8 million in 2022, the CAGR is [(5.8/4.1)^(1/4)]

1 ≈ 6.2% annually.

This approach ensures accuracy by addressing seasonal fluctuations and market expansion. Seasonal adjustments are critical because U.S. home sales typically peak in spring (March–May) and dip in winter, skewing annual comparisons. According to NAR’s 2022 report, unadjusted transactions reached 5.68 million, a 16% increase from 2021, but seasonally adjusted figures remained 3% below pre-pandemic levels. Normalization by population (331 million in 2022) provides per capita transaction rates, revealing whether growth stems from market expansion or increased buyer activity. The U.S. population grew 7.4% from 2018 to 2022, so a 42% transaction increase (4.1M to 5.8M) implies a 34% rise in per capita transactions, signaling heightened demand. Meanwhile, GDP growth (2.3% annualized from 2018–2022) suggests economic conditions supported higher transaction volumes. Combining these metrics clarifies whether trends reflect macroeconomic factors, demographic changes, or regulatory shifts, making the analysis actionable for policymakers and investors.